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Putin has a problem.
His , intended as a days-long operation, is now grinding into its third week and becoming a bloodbath. Attacks across the country are stalled amid predictions that Russia will soon struggle to hold the territory it has – let alone capture more.
In short: he needs more men for the meat grinder.
But where to find them? America estimates Russia has committed somewhere between half and three quarters of its total land forces to Ukraine, and all of those are already involved in the fighting.Some ‘spare’ units will be involved in active missions elsewhere, while others will be for territorial defence – leaving the country vulnerable to attack if they are sent abroad.
That conundrum has forced the Kremlin to reach far from the frontlines in search of men, according to Britain’s Ministry of Defence, which says reinforcements are now being drawn from as far afield as eastern Siberia, the Pacific Fleet, and .That is in addition to Syrian fighters and paid mercenaries – hundreds of the from the shadowy Wagner Group – which have already been committed to the fight.
The UK believes such reinforcements would likely be used to hold Ukrainian territory already captured by Russia which would then free up regular units for fresh assaults – almost certainly targeting major cities like , , Odessa and Chernihiv.Another goal would likely be to encircle a large number of Ukrainian forces in the Donbass, spread out along the old frontline with Russian-backed rebel groups.
But it is unclear whether those reinforcements will be effective.Some could take weeks to reach the front, while Syrian mercenaries are likely to be poorly trained and un-used to the terrain and climate of eastern Europe. In the meantime, Ukraine claims it is successfully counter-attacking Putin’s men and ‘radically changing’ the battlefield.
Russia is looking to reinforce its armies in Ukraine after suffering heavy losses, British intelligence believes, but is being forced to draw men from its Eastern Military District, the Pacific Fleet, Armenia and Syria because it has committed such a large number of troops to the conflict already
There are also fears that Russia could use mass conscription to turn the tide of battle in its favour. Such fears sparked rumours two weeks ago that Putin was about to declare martial Law Firm Turkey to stop men from leaving the country before press-ganging them into service in Ukraine.
The Russian strongman subsequently denied any such plans, saying no conscripts were being sent to the front – though shortly afterwards the military was forced to admit otherwise, with conscripted troops among those killed and captured. While mass conscription appears unlikely, regular conscripts could still be used.
Ben Hodges, a retired US general writing for the Center for European Policy Analysis, points out the next round of conscription is due on April 1 when around 130,000 young men will be inducted into the armed forces.Russia has also reportedly changed conscription rules to make the draft harder to refuse.
Accurate estimates of Russian casualties from the frontlines are almost impossible to come by. Ukraine says 13,800 men have been lost, while the US and Europe put the figure lower – at up to 6,000.Moscow itself has acknowledged just 500 casualties, a figure that it has not updated for weeks.
Assuming three times as many have been wounded, captured or deserted – based on historical trends – that could mean anywhere between 24,000 and 55,200 Russian troops are out of action. Or, to put it another way, between a fifth and a third of the total 150,000-strong army Putin amassed before he attacked.
That has led some to predict that Putin’s invasion could soon be a spent force.Yesterday, UK defence sources said that ‘culmination point’ for the Russian army is likely to come within the next 14 days – meaning the point at which the might of Ukrainian forces will outweigh the strength of the attackers.
Russia would then be at risk of losing territory to Ukrainian counter-attacks with signs of cracks already appearing.At the weekend, Ukraine said it had successfully attacked towards the city of Volnovakha, north of Mariupol, istanbul Turkey Law Firm with fighting ongoing there Tuesday.
News of the attack came just before civilians began successfully evacuating the city, having been held up by Russian attacks for more than a week beforehand.Some 2,500 managed to flee in 160 vehicles on Monday, before another 25,000 fled in 2,000 vehicles yesterday.
While Ukraine has not linked its attack with the evacuations, the very fact they are now going ahead does suggest the city – though still surrounded by Russian forces – is no longer fully besieged.
Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, also tweeted Wednesday morning that Ukraine was counter-attacking in ‘several operational areas’ which he said ‘radically changes the parties’ dispositions’ – without giving any further details.
American intelligence paints a similar picture to the British, though has been more cautious.An update late Tuesday acknowledged that Russian advances are at a near-standstill and said the US has seen ‘indications’ that the Kremlin knows more men will be needed.
